Reaction to Sec. Dar report to the President during the IATF –ETD meeting, Apr.23, 2020
ON RICE: Sec. William Dollente Dar reported that the demand is 14.6Million mt and the supply is 17.9 Million mt..and there is deficit of 3.3 million mt.
Doing the math of the data that Sec. Dar mentioned means…
à 14.6 Mt translate to 132Kg per cap at 110M Filipinos but 10M Filipinos are abroad or they are overseas Filipino workers. Less 10M to 110 M, the per cap is about 146Kg. This is so high. It’s not the correct per cap which is 112kg only.. this means our rice supply of 17.9 Mt is more than enough and not a deficit of 3.3Mt.
When I p.m Noel Reyes, he p.m me back claiming that 17.9Mt is the demand. Not correct again..as shown below.
à The correct calculation should be 112kg/cap x 110 M Filipinos = 12.32 Mt , or 112kg x 100 M= 11.2 Mt
..ADD our buffer stock at 60days =1.84Mt (60days/365day)x112kg×100M Filipinos).
TOTAL DEMAND = 13.04 to14.16Mt ( 11.2 + 1.84 = 13.04 Mt…..12.32 + 1.84 = 14.16 Mt )
If the supply is 17.9 Mt, or you 0vercalculate it again, it is too high. Accepting first that it is correct, THERE is an oversupply of rice because the demand is only13.04 to 14.16Mt . If the supply is 17.9Mt, this overestimate because the reported imports last was estimated to be 3.0 Mt only and not 6.0Mt as implied in your data regarding supply.
Please correct you calculations.
If this will not be corrected, we will over import again about 3.3 Mt. The immediate impact: babagsak na naman ang presyo ng palay. But the impact may turn out to be the opposite ..or mahihirapan tayo mag import. Myanmar is exporting organic rice, mataas ang price. Vietnam alam natin, mga ultra nationalist kaya protected nila masyado ang rice. Regulated export sila. Covid19 prevents Viet traders to buy rice in Cambodia that adds to their rice supply. Thai is exporting quality Jasmine rice which is very expensive. Considering these factors, it will trigger increase in rice prices. Farmgate price now ranges from P22-23/kg. Why the traders are buying rice at a high price? Maybe they anticipate difficulties in importing cheap rice. There is no more cheap rice to import.
Please straighten out the calculations immediately.
By Ted Mendoza, Maitim , Bay, Laguna
Retired full professor of the University of the Philippines Los Baños
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